Market Analysis
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Safe-Haven Rally; Gold & Silver Surge Amid Venezuela Crisis | 6th Januar
Markets turned defensive as Venezuela-related tensions sparked a surge in safe-haven demand. Gold climbed near $4,450 and Silver jumped above $76.50, while WTI held close to $58 amid supply-risk concerns. The US Dollar eased as geopolitical premiums faded, leaving FX pairs range-bound as traders focused on headlines and Fed expectations.
Markets opened the week defensively as geopolitical tensions and upcoming ISM PMI data boosted broad US Dollar strength. DXY held above 98.50, lifting USD/JPY beyond 154.00 while weighing on GBP, CHF, and AUD. Safe-haven flows dominated, with risk-sensitive currencies under pressure amid softer signals from China and ongoing global uncertainty.
By Pepperstone
by Dilin Wu, Research Strategist
Geopolitical tensions have boosted gold’s safe-haven demand. This week, gold eyes the key $4,400 level, with upcoming U.S. Non-Farm Payroll and PMI data likely to influence its early 2026 moves.
By IC Markets
News of US strikes against Venezuela over the weekend could see a lively start to the trading week at the Monday open, and traders will be keeping a close eye on updates from that region as the week progresses.
Markets remained subdued as thin year-end liquidity kept price action range-bound. WTI stayed below $58 and headed for a steep annual decline on demand concerns. EUR/USD struggled above 1.1800, while USD/CAD and NZD/USD consolidated. The PBOC continued to guide the Yuan via fixings, reinforcing stability as investors avoid conviction trades into year-end.
Global markets open 2026 cautiously as Fed rate-cut bets and geopolitical risks drive gold toward $4,350. WTI holds near $57.50 ahead of OPEC+, while the US Dollar weakens, supporting AUD and GBP gains. Focus remains on central bank signals and geopolitical developments.
By FP Markets
XJO WEEKLY
Price structure: Developing 5 Wave
The weekly chart of the XJO is now showcasing a maturing five‑wave topping structure, with wave 4 currently unfolding. This corrective phase has so far behaved in line with typical fourth‑wave dynamics, retracing enough to reset sentiment without meaningfully damaging the broader uptrend. Provided this structure continues to hold, the technical expectation is for the index to resolve higher into a final push past 9600 point registering a new all‑time high. That advance would then complete the larger wave 5 termination sequence, setting the stage for a more pronounced and sustained decline as the full cycle reaches exhaustion.
This pattern can fail and may take many months to resolve, for now the Bullish bias remains into a new high.
Indicator: Relative strength 14: Rejection
Relative strength has turned higher above the key 50 level in line with the current price movement in the Index value. Only further movements over the 50 towards the 70 level can set a continuing bullish signal for price movements.
The RSI turning further lower to move further below the 50 level, is a strong indication for negative momentum to develop leading to Up Trend failure and further declines.
Comments last week:-
The Weekly chart of the XJO200 reveals a period of consolidation centred around the 8615 level, which is emerging as a pivotal zone of both support and resistance. This price behaviour suggests a temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers, with neither side exerting decisive control. The repeated interaction with 8615, marked by multiple touches and rejections since January 2025, indicates that market participants are closely watching this level for directional cues. Breakout strategies targeting the next resistance band near 8760, and breakdown scenarios eyeing support near 8420. The observation of wave analysis would indicate a move towards the 9054 level being a Wave 4 in this potential 5 Wave top.
XJO DAILY
Price structure: 200 MA retest
The daily view of the XJO continues to emphasise the importance of the 200‑day moving average, which has repeatedly acted as a reliable dynamic support zone throughout the current consolidation. Each dip into this region has been met with stabilising demand, reinforcing the broader bullish bias despite the choppy short‑term structure.
The index has been able to rebuild upward momentum past the 8760 support/resistance level, positioning price for another approach toward the 8890-resistance level. A further retest of this barrier now appears likely in the coming trading week.
Indicator: Relative strength 14: Bullish momentum
RSI following day to day price movements in this short consolidation from the 8615 level past the 8760 level. Relative strength moving back towards the key 70 level shows increasing Bullish momentum. Price failure and a further move lower below the 50 level will indicate a loss of positive momentum, a short-term traders sell signal.
Comments last week
The breakout discussed last week has so far failed to develop into a sustained continuation move to the upside. Instead of following through with impulsive buying, the Index has slipped into a more measured, sideways movement suggesting that the market is content to consolidate around the 8615 level. This behaviour often reflects a temporary balance between Bullish continuation and short-term selling, with neither side exerting enough pressure to force a decisive directional move.
Importantly, this consolidation is occurring above the 200‑day moving average, which continues to function as a major support zone.
S&P 500 WEEKLY: Breakout
A fresh weekly all‑time high in the S&P firmly resets the broader trend and reinforces the underlying strength that has been building from the Mid-point support of the Pivot bar set 3 weeks ago. This breakout signals that the recent consolidation phase has likely run its course, with the index now transitioning from digestion back into expansion with a price target of 7000 points. The move not only confirms persistent demand at higher levels but also opens the door for further upside follow‑through as momentum re‑accelerates. With resistance now converted into 9600 support, the market enters a phase where incremental gains provided from buyers maintain control and volatility remains contained.
Indicator: Relative strength 14.
The turning movement to lower levels below the 70 line shows a momentum slowing signal. Price action will remain strong only when the RSI is travelling above the 70 level. As price consolidates the RSI naturally moves lower as momentum slows, in the past week the RSI has turned higher. A move below this important area back towards the 50 level may develop into a full sell signal.
Comments from last week
The S&P500 continues to consolidate below the 6900 level, the lower shadow of last weeks candle suggest cautious Buying remains as price trades at the high of the earlier Pivot reversal Bar of 4 weeks ago. The high range close shows late buying. A decisive close over the 6900 level would be very Bullish for further gains. With the current close towards the all-time closing high of 3 weeks prior, the market remains Bullish within the current Primary UP Trend.
SPX DAILY
Price structure: Resistance tested
A fresh weekly all‑time high in the S&P firmly reinforces the broader trend and reinforces the underlying strength that has been building beneath the surface recently. This breakout signals that the recent consolidation phase has likely run its course, with the index now transitioning from digestion back into expansion. The move not only confirms persistent demand at higher levels but also opens the door for further upside follow‑through as momentum re‑accelerates. With resistance now converted into support, the market enters a phase where incremental gains can unfold more freely, provided buyers maintain control and volatility remains contained.
Indicator: Relative strength 14. Bullish
The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) having moved higher from below the key 50 level. This important level is the swing level between, positive or negative price momentum. Only if the RSI continues to rise from the current level to remain over pivotal 50 level, with a movement towards and over the 70 level will likely confirm a further short-term Bullish outlook.
Comments from last week
From the Fake out high of 2 weeks ago leading to the retest lower towards 6695 the Index remains within a tight range. A Daily close over 6920 points would potentially be very strong signal for the Buyers and force a short covering move higher. Two key levels remain in place, support at 6550 and resistance at 6920, a price breakdown from the 6550 level would signal a major top in place. Conversely a move above the 6920 level offers a consolidation zone breakout with a 7000 point level target. The current Pivot point reversal is the first signal of higher prices to come.
NASDAQ (100) DAILY Price structure: Resistance
The Outside‑down OPd range has effectively defined the swing low, providing a clear reference point for the current recovery phase. Price has since rallied back toward the 25,626 area, but importantly, this advance still sits beneath the Island Top formation established in late October. That overhead structure remains a significant technical barrier, both psychologically and structurally, as it represents the point where buyers previously lost control in a decisive gap‑driven reversal. Until price can reclaim and close above that Island Top, the broader tone of the market remains corrective rather than impulsively bullish, with the current rally best viewed as a retracement into resistance rather than a confirmed trend reversal
Indicator: Relative strength 14: Bullish momentum
Relative strength has been increasing for the past week from having turned lower to move below the key 50 level, a Bearish indication. A reversal back over this important level and continued move higher over this key level and towards the 70 level is a strong signal to maintain a Bullish outlook.
Comments from last week.
The Nasdaq ahs set a Pivot point reversal to close out last week, a Bullish signal within the larger consolidation area below the 26,200-resistance point and current Support level shown at 23,950. As this consolidation has developed from early September, the Primary Trend has remained UP, last Wednesday the Index has set a higher low confirmed with the Pivot bar confirmed on Friday.
USD Spot GOLD – DAILY: Bullish flag Breakout
USD Gold has delivered a decisive breakout from the Bullish flag discussed last week into a continuation move, pushing well beyond the $4,378.60 level without offering a retest of that key breakout point. The absence of any pullback underscores the strength of underlying demand and highlights that Buyers remain firmly in control of the trend. Momentum has stayed robust throughout the advance, with each session reinforcing the broader bullish structure rather than signalling exhaustion. This sustained strength is being fuelled by a supportive macro backdrop, where ongoing global and geopolitical developments continue to drive capital toward the precious metal as a preferred asset. Until price action shows evidence of fatigue or a meaningful retracement, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.
Indicator: Relative Strength 14: Positive Momentum
The RSI has remained above the 50 level and has now crossed the 70 level, this a Bullish reading, this is typical during a structural price consolidation following a short momentum move from the Bullish flag pattern. However, should the RSI reading decrease in the coming week further lower towards the 50 level, this will reflect a potential larger exhaustion signal. Short term holders and traders should continue to monitor the RSI for a movement remaining above the 50 level as an overall Buy signal.
Comments from last week:
USD Gold continues to consolidate below the $4378.60 October resistance point. Price action last week has developed into a Bullish Flag pattern. Trader may expect a further breakout higher as this pattern develops. Developments in Central bank actions and narratives will continue to drive price rather than general retail buying.
AUD GOLD – DAILY: New all-time closing high
The expanded range of the Australian Dollar Gold price mirrors the USD Gold price with a stable Australian dollar in the background. As the USD Gold price Primary UP trend remains intact the current Primary trend in the AUD price of gold could be expected to continue higher. The remains a very Bullish indicator for Australian Gold producers. The current bar remains a fake out high retesting
Indicator: Relative Strength 14: Neutral
The short rally last week has lifted the RSI back to remain above the 70 level. At this juncture momentum remains Bullish until a retest of the 50 level takes place The relative strength is now at risk of developing a lower swing high and divergence sell signal in the coming weeks. Australian Gold producers remain within well-defined UP Trends.
Comments from last week.
With the current advance in the USD Gold price to $4347.0 has moved the $AUD Gold price higher. The Australian dollar has remained relatively stable around the $0.66c level. An advance in the $AUD will place pressure on the AUD Gold price. Currently the price movements remain very Bullish for Australian based producer Gold stocks. Listed Gold explorers pricing will remain incumbent to drilling and exploration results.
SILVER
Price structure: Exponential price movement
USD Silver has entered a distinctly exponential phase, driving price sharply higher toward the USD $80 region and ultimately USD$100/oz. The advance over recent months has been characterised by persistent upside momentum, with remarkably few meaningful sell bars appearing throughout the climb. This type of price behaviour reflects a market dominated by aggressive, one‑way buying pressure, where each minor pause is quickly absorbed and momentum traders continue to chase strength.
However, exponential structures carry their own inherent risks. When a trend becomes this extended and one‑sided, the absence of regular profit‑taking can create a vacuum beneath price. Should sentiment shift or buyers simply step aside, the market can experience a swift and disorderly retracement as participants rush to lock in gains, a reversal close below $75 may indicate this outcome.
Relative strength 14: Strong momentum
The relative strength index (RSI) has moved to align with the price expansion. This movement indicates a directional increase of momentum and sets a strong indication a consolidation phase may emerge.
Comments from last week.
The Silver chart is displaying a developing exponential advance in price, the short term trendlines are becoming steeper. This type of price development historically leads to a profit taking event. Traders would monitor the trendline development with a price crossing and closing below being the first indication a potential top is in place. Macro development continues to drive price as demand begins to exceed a perceived shortage in supply.
BITCOIN
Bear flag remains
Bitcoin continues to consolidate at the lower Trendline, the Bear flag development has the potential to playout into lower prices towards the $73,800 level. From the start of the year Bitcoin remains down over 10% and within a large consolidation area between $123,153 Resistance and $73,800 as the key support level. Traders would only look for a close over the $98,286 level to assign a Bullish view to price.
Relative strength 14: Negative
Relative Strength remains in sync with the underlying price movements. Momentum is declining as price consolidates, the RSI has moved below the key 50 level indicating momentum remains negative.
Comments from last week.
Bitcoin continues to consolidate at the lower Trendline, the Bear flag development has the potential to playout into lower prices towards the $73,800 level. From the start of the year Bitcoin remains down over 10% and within a large consolidation area between $123,153 Resistance and $73,800 as the key support level. Traders would only look for a close over the $98,286 level to assign a Bullish view to price.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
The information in this report is of a general nature only. It is not personal financial product advice. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs.
You should therefore consider the appropriateness of this general information in light of these statements. The Australian School of Technical Analysis (www.astatrading.com) recommend that you refer to the Product Disclosure Statements of any financial products which are discussed in this report before making any investment decisions.
ASTA accepts no responsibility for your actions and recommends you contact a licensed advisor before acting on any information contained in this general information report.By IC Markets
Asian markets began the week on a mixed note Monday, with activity remaining relatively subdued as global markets move into the final trading days of the year.
The US Dollar slid to multi-month lows as markets priced in a more aggressive Fed easing path. DXY dipped near 97.80, lifting EUR/USD toward 1.1800 and keeping NZD/USD near October highs. USD/CAD fell to five-month lows on softer yields and firmer oil, while WTI edged up near $58.50 amid geopolitical support.
The US Dollar slid to multi-month lows as markets priced in a more aggressive Fed easing path. DXY dipped near 97.80, lifting EUR/USD toward 1.1800 and keeping NZD/USD near October highs. USD/CAD fell to five-month lows on softer yields and firmer oil, while WTI edged up near $58.50 amid geopolitical support.
FX markets stayed reactive as Fed easing bets weighed on the US Dollar. USD/CAD slipped below 1.3750 with oil supporting the loonie, GBP hit multi-week highs on thin liquidity, and JPY strengthened on intervention talk, pulling EUR/JPY lower. AUD outperformed after hawkish RBA minutes highlighted persistent inflation pressures.
By Pepperstone
Gold Outlook for 2026: Ongoing central bank buying, shifts in the dollar and interest rates, geopolitics, and ETF flows continue to underpin prices. The price anchor is likely to move higher—while rational and flexible positioning remains key.
By VT Markets
The week ahead looks quiet on the calendar but loud on the charts. As liquidity thins into year-end, even modest data surprises could push USD, gold and crypto out of their current ranges.
Markets flipped firmly risk-off as renewed Middle East tensions fueled strong safe-haven demand. Gold and Silver surged to fresh record highs, while WTI climbed near $57 on supply-risk concerns. The US Dollar softened toward 98.50 ahead of GDP data, allowing AUD to edge higher despite caution. Geopolitics remain the dominant driver across assets.
By IC Markets
Asian stock markets are trading mostly higher on Friday, buoyed by broadly positive cues from Wall Street after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data reinforced confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve may continue cutting interest rates next year. Asian markets had ended mostly lower in the previous session.
By VT Markets
Key Points
- USDJPY rose to 156.31 after BOJ’s 25bps hike failed to reassure markets of a tightening path.
- Japan’s core inflation remains at 3%, exceeding the 2% target for 44 straight months.
By Pepperstone
To nobody’s surprise, the ECB’s Governing Council stood pat at this year’s final policy meeting, strengthening the idea that the easing cycle is done & dusted, and seeking not to ‘rock the boat’ before the Christmas break.
Markets turned mixed after softer US CPI, with initial USD weakness fading and triggering profit-taking in Gold and Silver. XAU and XAG pulled back from highs but remain supported by Fed rate-cut expectations. AUD softened on a steadier Dollar, NZD edged higher, and GBP/USD stayed range-bound below 1.3400 as policy divergence remains in focus.
By LiteFinance
At 15:15 (GMT+2), the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold a monetary policy meeting.
By OEXN
U.S. inflation data due Thursday is expected to show prices remain above the Federal Reserve’s target. The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecast to rise 3.1% year over year, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) also at 3.1%, slightly higher than September’s 3%.
Markets stayed range-bound ahead of key US inflation data, with the Dollar steady below the mid-98s. AUD softened amid a firmer USD tone, while AUD/JPY held above key technical support. EUR/JPY stayed elevated near 183.00 on Japan fiscal concerns, and USD/CHF consolidated near 0.7950. Traders remain cautious, awaiting CPI for direction.
Silver surges to record highs near $66 as weak US data boosts Fed rate-cut expectations and pressures the Dollar, keeping DXY near 98.30. Metals lead gains, while EUR holds steady ahead of CPI. AUD and NZD remain under pressure despite supportive central bank backdrops. Markets show selective risk-taking led by precious metals.
Markets traded cautiously ahead of the delayed US NFP, keeping FX pairs range-bound. AUD and NZD weakened on disappointing China data, while WTI slid below $56.50 on Russia-Ukraine peace hopes easing supply risks. USD/CAD hovered near 1.3770 and GBP/USD stayed flat as traders adopted a defensive, data-dependent stance.
By IC Markets
Asian stock markets are trading mostly lower on Monday, tracking broadly negative cues from Wall Street on Friday, where heavy selling in technology stocks weighed sharply on sentiment.
Gold rallies above $4,300 as Fed rate-cut expectations and safe-haven demand rise ahead of US NFP, with Silver holding near $62.50. Weak Chinese data pressures the Yuan and drags on AUD and NZD despite a softer USD. Markets show a clear split between defensive assets and China-sensitive currencies amid cautious risk sentiment.
By VT Markets
Key Points
AI infrastructure spending remains a key driver of US equity sentiment.
Traders assess whether heavy capex can support current valuations.
US Non-Farm Payrolls and BOJ policy decision headline the macro calendar.
USD, gold, oil, and Bitcoin consolidate near key technical levels.
GBP weakens as UK GDP contracts for a second month, while the Yen gains on hawkish BoJ expectations. USD softens toward 98.00 amid rising 2026 Fed rate-cut bets, supporting EUR and risk assets. WTI oil edges higher on improving demand and stabilizing supply. Markets remain data- and policy-driven with cautious optimism.
Post-Fed markets favor metals as Gold rises above $4,200 and Silver holds near record highs. USD softens toward 98.50, supporting commodities, while WTI trades below $59 amid Ukraine peace talks. AUD remains pressured after mixed jobs data. Overall, metals gain, oil consolidates, and USD-linked pairs trade cautiously ahead of US labor data.
Aussie slides after RBA holds at 3.6% | WTI dips to $58.50 on Iraq supply recovery | USD/CAD soft amid tariff risks 🇨🇦 | AUD/NZD drops toward 1.1440, AUD/JPY under 103.50 as AUD weakness broadens. Markets cautious on central-bank signals + energy sentiment.
By IC Markets
What happened in the Asia session?
During the Asia session, markets exhibited caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s anticipated 25 basis point rate cut, with Asian stocks slipping, Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.11%, South Korea’s Kospi off 0.36%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declining 0.19% while the dollar held steady and Treasury yields rose.
By Pepperstone
By Dilin Wu - Research Strategist
Gold consolidates at highs, facing strong $4,250 resistance. FOMC dot plot, Powell’s comments, and global central bank policy divergences may steer year-end market moves.
Markets are steady ahead of the US PCE inflation data. Gold trades flat near $4,205, silver rises to ~$57.50, WTI crude holds around $59.45, and AUD/USD and GBP/USD remain stable. Traders await PCE results, with Fed rate expectations and geopolitical risks shaping cautious sentiment.
The Yen strengthens as BoJ tightening expectations grow, while the AUD rises on a larger trade surplus and reduced odds of RBA cuts. The USD trades mixed, with USD/CAD steady, USD/JPY easing, NZD/USD consolidating, and USD/CNY guided lower by a stronger PBOC fix. Markets now await US data and central bank signals for direction.
The US Dollar slips toward 99.20 as traders await key US data, while rate-cut expectations keep pressure on the greenback. AUD and NZD strengthen on firm domestic signals and China momentum, USD/CNY edges higher on soft China PMI, and AUD/JPY stays weak after GDP misses. Markets now look to US PCE, ISM, and jobs data for direction.
WTI’s drop below $59 highlights weak demand and keeps oil in a bearish trend, pressuring the CAD and supporting USD/CAD near 1.40. Risk-on sentiment lifts USD/JPY, silver corrects after a record run, and a slightly higher USD/CNY fix signals controlled yuan moves ahead of key US and China data.
By FP Markets
Last week brought a welcome dose of clarity for the UK. Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her Autumn Budget to the House of Commons, increasing her fiscal buffer to £22 billion, while announcing £26 billion in tax rises.
Metals Surge as Gold and Silver Break New Highs Amid Growing Fed Cut Expectations | 1st December 202
Gold tops $4,200 and silver hits $57.50 as Fed rate-cut expectations and softer US yields fuel safe-haven demand. WTI rises toward $59.30 after OPEC+ halts supply hikes. EUR/USD trades above 1.1600 on USD weakness, while USD/CNY faces pressure from weak Chinese PMI. Markets eye US data and Fed commentary for the next catalyst.
By OEXN
Canada will impose "new 25% tariffs" on a range of steel derivative products — including many made in the US — as Prime Minister Mark Carney moves to support a steel industry hurt by cheap Chinese imports and the trade war.
DeepSeek, a rising force in AI, has sent shockwaves through the US stock market with its cost-effective AI (artificial intelligence) models. While DeepSeek’s rise has captured market attention, it remains to be seen how sustainable its competitive edge will be.
Majors strengthen as Fed rate-cut bets weigh on the USD. GBP and AUD rise on firm domestic data, while NZD holds near monthly highs onhawkish RBNZ signals. USD/CNY stays steady after a stable PBOC fix, and USD/CAD firms above 1.40 on weak oil. Markets await US PCE and key central-bank commentary.
Gold and silver stay in focus as softer US data and rising Fed rate-cut bets lift precious metals. USD/JPY extends its decline on BoJ tightening hopes, while AUD/USD firms on improved risk sentiment. Silver corrects below 53.00, gold consolidates, and WTI slips on Ukraine–Russia ceasefire reports. Markets await key US data and Fed signals.
The Yen surged on BoJ hike speculation, pressuring USD/JPY, while EUR/JPY stayed range-bound. Silver climbed toward $52 on softer US yields, and WTI held above $58 on Fed-cut optimism. USD/CAD dipped toward 1.4080 as CAD strengthened. Markets remain driven by central bank signals and upcoming US data.
By FP Markets
It was another bruising week for risk amid a cocktail of concerns that sent investors running for the exit. Despite positive earnings from bellwether chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA), optimism proved short-lived.
Markets trade cautiously as expectations grow for a December Fed rate cut. The USD Index holds near 100.00, gold breaks above $4,050 on dovish sentiment, and silver lags below $50. AUD/USD steadies ahead of key CPI data, while USD/CAD stays pressured by softer USD and firm commodities.
Major currencies saw sharp moves as mixed US data weakened the dollar while strong Australian PMI supported AUD. JPY stayed pressured by policy divergence, and the PBOC guided CNY slightly stronger. USD/CAD eased but remains firm on soft Canadian data. Traders await PMI and central bank signals to gauge the next direction.
Precious metals firmed as gold and silver gained ahead of key US labor data, while oil edged higher on EIA draws. FX markets were steady, with USD/CAD supported by weaker oil and USD/CNY guided by PBOC stability. Traders remain cautious, awaiting the delayed NFP and central bank cues to shape short-term momentum.
By Pepperstone
After a significant crypto market pullback, traders are asking whether this correction now represents a more attractive entry point for medium- and longer-term positioning.
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